The Safe House - Expositions

I hate reruns. So, when I wake up at the crack of oh-dark-hundred and haul my couch-lovin' hiney across town for an Emmy nomination show, I can get a little, um, cranky when all the names are repeats of the year before.

But this Thursday, when the nominations are announced for the 2002 Emmy Awards, I expect to be in the best of spirits. A regular Pollyfreakin'anna.

You see, thanks to the exclusion of The Sopranos and the fizzling of onetime Emmy staples like Ally McBeal and The X-Files, we are finally guaranteed some first-time nominees.

You can see for yourself this Thursday morning, when Jules Asner and Steve Kmetko host E!'s live coverage of the 2002 Emmy nominations on Thursday, July 18 (8 to 9:30 a.m. ET/5 to 6:30 PT). I'll be there, as well, to put in my two cents on who lucked out and who was robbed.

This year, the most knock-down, drag-out battles are between newcomers vying for the same category. There are more available slots but, of course, still far too many candidates to fill them.

Wondering which rookies will score a little Emmy nookie? Read on:

Best Actress in a Drama

The Shoo-ins: Marg Helgenberger (CSI), Jennifer Garner (Alias), Amy Brenneman (Judging Amy) and Sela Ward (Once and Again)

The Showdown: Sarah Michelle Gellar (Buffy the Vampire Slayer) versus Leslie Hope (24)

The Scoop: Jennifer Garner should be a sure thing. (If not, tune in Thursday for a very special episode of TV maven meltdown.) And the last spot will most likely go to either Sarah or Leslie, pretty much the most tortured females on the tube this season. Rape. Kidnapping. Pregnancy. Death. Oh, and don't forget the amnesia! Both deserve a nod for making such melodrama so convincing.

Still, I'm sorry, but Leslie's character, Teri Ho-Hum Pants, pales in comparison to that sassy Slayer. And given the considerable buzz over Buffy's musical episode (which sadly won't get the writing win it deserves because of that pathetic ballot snafu), I'm expecting (with bated breath) Emmy voters will finally rectify the longtime Buffy snub. If only to shut us up, which is fine by me.

Best Actor in a Drama

The Shoo-ins: Martin Sheen (The West Wing), William Petersen (CSI), Dennis Franz (NYPD Blue), Anthony Edwards (ER)

The Showdown: Michael Chiklis (The Shield) versus Kiefer Sutherland (24) versus Peter Krause (Six Feet Under)

The Scoop: With Gandolfini out of the running, expect voters to give Edwards a nice little send-off nom after his tearjerking farewell. That leaves Chiklis, Sutherland and Krause to duke it out for the remaining spot. This is truly a neck-and-neck race, because they are all veteran actors on new shows with big hype and limited reach.

Chiklis and Sutherland are garnering considerable buzz--The Shield set new all-time ratings records FX, but it's Krause who has the upper hand. His character, Nate, has more depth than the gunslinging tough guys, which will appeal to voters. And don't forget that the Academy goes ape-dung for all things HBO.

Best Actress in a Comedy

The Shoo-ins: Debra Messing, Jane Kaczmarek, Patricia Heaton, Sarah Jessica Parker

The Showdown: Jennifer Aniston versus Lauren Graham

The Scoop: Poor Lauren. Even though she's arguably more talented than any of the other female comedy contenders, the voters would never turn their backs on Debra, Jane, Patricia or Sarah. It's also the worst possible year to go up against Aniston, whose pregnancy and love triangle dominated the season and were largely credited for Friends' surprise comeback.

So, sorry mama Gilmore. Jen's got it in the bag. The upshot is our girl Rachel might actually win this time, scoring the first Lead Acting prize for Friends. (Kudrow won for Supporting in 1998.) And that is certainly long overdue.

Best Actor in a Comedy

The Shoo-ins: Eric McCormack, Frankie Muniz, Ray Romano, Kelsey Grammer

The Showdown: Zach Braff versus Bernie Mac

The Scoop: Shocked not to see any Friendly fellas? Well, considering how deeply fans are divided on the Joey-Ross conundrum, sadly, I'm expecting the voting pool to be equally divided, rendering the boy Friends nomless.

That leaves Zach and Mac to duke it out. And it's a very tight race, given that both funnyguys are on critical faves that suffered lower-than-expected audiences because they were lost in the Tuesday onslaught. I would love for the deserving Mac Daddy to get a big-ass nod (we all know that, sadly, black nominees are still few and far between), but I'm betting on Braff because his Peacock pad is higher profile.

Think I left someone out? Put the wrong person in? Then email me. Or take a minute to sound off during our next chat this Monday at 6 p.m. ET. We'll be tackling all the usual shows--everything from ER to Sex and the City. Plus, the almighty TV network press tour (or as I call it, Stalkfest 2002) begins Saturday, so I expect to have loads of dish.

And, natch, don't forget to tune in to E! on July 18 at 8 to 9:30 a.m. ET/5 to 6:30 PT for the live Emmy nominations, so you can see just how wrong my predictions are--and tell me all about it.

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