The Safe House - Expositions

I spent days in the TV Gal Laboratory – crunching numbers, analyzing statistics, and thinking like an Emmy voter. I thought older. I thought like someone who doesn't watch television regularly (clearly the most difficult part of the whole experiment). And every five minutes, I repeated the mantra every Emmy voter lives by, "Familiarity, repetition, old favorites. Familiarity, repetition, old favorites."

Eric McCormack and Allison Janney will announce the Emmy nominations on Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. eastern time on E! and NBC (E! begins its coverage at 8 a.m.) Side bar discussion: You know what I'll never understand? The stars who claim their publicist/agent/parent woke them up to tell them that they were nominated. Now if I'm up watching the nominations, if I can barely sleep the night before, how can they be so calm? But I digress . . .

Here are my predictions for who I think will receive an Emmy nomination this Thursday:

Comedy
"Everybody Loves Raymond"
"Frasier"
"Friends"
"Sex and the City"
"Will & Grace"

Last year, four of the five nominations were repeats from 2000. The only change was "Malcolm in the Middle" swapping in for "Friends." Even if voters have never watched "Friends," they've probably read about the show's rejuvenation this season. A similar buzz has been surrounding "Malcolm's" disappointingly lackluster season. If voters are really feeling brave they'll drop kick the totally undeserving "Will & Grace" out of there and switch in "Gilmore Girls" or "Scrubs." But don't count on it.

Drama
"C.S.I."
"ER"
"Law & Order"
"Six Feet Under"
"The West Wing"

This is the toughest category to call. Last year's nominees were an exact repeat of 2000. But this year "The Sopranos" is out of the running and I simply have to believe that the Academy's love affair with all things David Kelley is over. Last year "The Practice" managed to squeak by with a nomination, but none of the show's stars received a nod. I expect "The Practice," which had a season bordering on laughable, to be completely shut out. The easiest play to call is "Six Feet Under" substituting in for "The Sopranos." While I do think "Six Feet Under" will do quite well, I don't see it dominating like the powerhouse "Sopranos." The more difficult enigma is what show will take the fifth slot. "CSI" and "24" both have good shots. The Academy already started to recognize "CSI," a safe choice, last year when they nominated Marg Helgenberger. Industry insiders are thrilled that "24" pulled off such a tricky concept. If the Academy is truly living large they'll drop the tired "Law & Order" or "ER" and bring in "24."

Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Dennis Franz, "NYPD Blue"
Peter Krause, "Six Feet Under"
William Petersen, "C.S.I."
Martin Sheen, "The West Wing"
Kiefer Sutherland, "24"

Anthony Edwards' "watch me die veeeeery slowly" performance could break into the top five, but the last time Edwards was nominated was in 1998. I also don't expect to see last year's nominee Rob Lowe. It was ridiculous that Lowe was promoted to lead status when he gets an equal amount of screen time as his supporting status co-stars. Sutherland is the wildcard here. His slot could go to Michael Chiklis ("The Shield") because we now know that the Academy likes its protagonist dark and troubled or Chi McBride, who is the only reason to watch "Boston Public."

Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Amy Brenneman, "Judging Amy"
Kim Delaney, "Philly"
Jennifer Garner, "Alias"
Marg Helgenberger, "C.S.I."
Sela Ward, "Once & Again"

Here's where I think the "Gilmore Girls" switch to comedy really hurt Lauren Graham. The lead actress in a drama is a much more open category this year (tip the hat once again to "The Sopranos"). There are simply not that many dramas lead by women. And even if you thought of Leslie Hope as the lead on "24," her campaign is for Outstanding Supporting Actress. The Academy likes Delaney, she won an Emmy when she was on "NYPD Blue." The Academy proved last year with Andre Braugher's nomination for "Gideon's Crossing" that even if your show has been cancelled you can still be nominated. Call me the eternal optimist, but I do think that there's a chance Sarah Michelle Gellar could sneak in. The "Buffy" musical received quite a bit of buzz and wouldn't it be just like the Academy to nominate Gellar for a season that was not universally loved by fans? Could there room for two butt-kicking heroes on the Emmy ballot? Perhaps, perhaps.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Victor Garber, "Alias"
Dennis Haysbert, "24"
Richard Schiff, "The West Wing"
John Spencer, "The West Wing"
Bradley Whitford, "The West Wing"

I expect a "West Wing" three-peat (and since I'm in a predicting mood, I'll say that I think Spencer is a lock for a win.) With the mobsters out of the running this year, I don't see the Academy returning to nominees of yesteryear like Michael Badalucco or Steve Harris on "The Practice." But Noah Wyle, the proclaimed future of "ER" could trade in for Haysbert. And if I'm wrong and "Six Feet Under" does dominate, this is where you might see a nod for Freddy Rodríguez (Federico).

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Stockard Channing, "The West Wing"
Tyne Daly, "Judging Amy"
Rachel Griffiths, "Six Feet Under"
Allison Janney, "The West Wing"
Maura Tierney, "ER"

Leslie Hope, who has been running a strong Emmy campaign, could sneak in for Maura Tierney or take over the spot left open by Aida Turturro that I've given to Griffiths. Recently Hope has expressed her bitterness about being killed off "24," but those remarks came after the Emmy ballot deadline, so she has a real shot here.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Kelsey Grammer, "Frasier"
Matt LeBlanc, "Friends"
Eric McCormack, "Will & Grace"
Frankie Muniz, "Malcolm in the Middle"
Ray Romano, "Everybody Loves Raymond"

John Lithgow's departure leaves one open slot. Even though "Malcolm" didn't have its best season, I don't see the Academy taking a nomination away from a young star. I expect the open slot to go to LeBlanc, who got his first chance to really shine this season. But Zach Braff ("Scrubs") and Tom Cavanaugh ("Ed") also have a chance. Especially Cavanaugh, who was the Golden Globes' choice.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Jennifer Aniston, "Friends"
Patricia Heaton, "Everybody Loves Raymond"
Jane Kaczmarek, "Malcolm in the Middle"
Debra Messing, "Will & Grace"
Sarah Jessica Parker, "Sex and the City"

The most predictable category. Heaton should continue her Helen Hunt like streak with Parker, Kaczmarek, and Messing following suit. Aniston, who had a huge story line this season and has been nominated for the past two year as a supporting actress, should take the slot held last year by Calista Flockhart. I have to believe there's no way the Academy is inviting Flockhart back to the big dance. If the Academy drops Kaczmarek, who had off-camera salary shenanigans this season, or the shrill Messing, Lauren Graham ("Gilmore Girls") or Leah Remini ("King of Queens" ) might be able to wrangle their way in there.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Brad Garrett, "Everybody Loves Raymond"
Peter Boyle, "Everybody Loves Raymond"
Sean Hayes, "Will & Grace"
John C. McGinley, "Scrubs"
David Hyde Pierce, "Frasier"

Garrett was ousted last year in favor of Robert Downey, Jr. I don't see that happening with Jon Bon Jovi, Ally's love interest this season. In fact, I don't see any love for the "Ally" boys this year. I think McGinley, who has been positively brilliant on "Scrubs," will get a nod. Unless the Academy decides to recognizes one of the "Sex and the City" boys or Edward Hermann, an Emmy favorite (he won for "The Practice.")

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Kelly Bishop, "Gilmore Girls"
Kim Cattrall, "Sex and the City"
Megan Mullally, "Will & Grace"
Cynthia Nixon, "Sex and the City"
Doris Roberts, "Everybody Loves Raymond"

Another open category due to the "Friends" gals' promotion to lead status. The nominees were exactly the same in 2000 and 2001, with Lisa Kudrow and Jennifer Aniston joining Cattrall, Mullally, and Roberts. I expect Nixon to finally get recognition and Bishop, someone who has been respected in the industry for a long time, to come through for "Gilmore Girls."

Those are my Emmy predictions, what are yours? Talk about it on the TV Gal Message Board. Remember if you want to know who I think should be nominated; check out my columns from July 1 and July 8.

Back To All About Alias 2002